Syria’s Energy Sector and Its Impact on Stability and Regional Developments
Syria’s oil and gas fields, largely under YPG control in the east, could fund reconstruction and reshape the country’s regional standing — but only if Damascus, Washington, and Ankara can settle who controls them. Professor Brenda Shaffer’s Atlantic Council issue brief lays out Syria’s energy potential after Assad: the prospects for restoring oil and electricity […]
Dis-empowering Africa: How the West’s energy policies fuel poverty in Africa
Africa has the world’s lowest per capita energy use, yet the World Bank, the IEA, and the G7 are pushing it to skip fossil fuels and adopt renewable energy that cannot deliver reliable power without a stable baseload. In this CNAPS issue brief, Brenda Shaffer argues there is no real-world precedent for “leapfrogging” straight to […]
President Aliyev: Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are at the lowest level ever
President Ilham Aliyev warns that Azerbaijan-Iran relations have hit their lowest point in history, citing what he calls state-sponsored terrorism from Tehran. Brenda Shaffer traces the roots of this hostility, from Iran’s opposition to Azerbaijani independence in 1991 through its arms support for Armenia in the 2020 war, and examines the fallout from January 2023’s […]
With Winter Coming, Europe Is Walking Off a Cliff
Europe’s energy crisis didn’t start with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it was two decades in the making. Brenda Shaffer argues that ideologically-driven policies, phasing out nuclear and coal, banning fracking, and underinvesting in renewables, left Europe dangerously exposed even before the war began. She lays out what leaders got wrong and what it would actually […]
Israel’s Role in the Second Armenia-Azerbaijan War and Its Implications for the Future
Israel’s 25-year defense partnership with Azerbaijan proved decisive in the 2020 war with Armenia, and its implications reach far beyond the battlefield. Brenda Shaffer examines how Azerbaijan’s innovative use of Israeli drones, integrated with Turkish systems, reshaped the conflict, helped thaw Turkey-Israel relations, and gave Israel a foothold of influence among the ethnic Azerbaijani population […]
Iran’s policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia
Iran is often seen as an Islamic power guided by religious solidarity, but Brenda Shaffer argues its policy toward the Caucasus and Central Asia tells a different story. With more than half its borders and a third of its population tied to these regions, Iran acts on pragmatic self-interest, not faith, as shown by its […]
Europe’s Tiny Steps Won’t Solve Its Energy Emergency
Europe’s energy emergency wasn’t caused by the war in Ukraine. It was decades in the making. Policymakers leaned on renewable subsidies, restricted domestic gas development, and trusted market mechanisms to manage what was really a security crisis. They also phased out nuclear power without a viable replacement. The modest steps European governments have taken so […]
How Iran’s Ethnic Divisions Are Fueling the Revolt
Iran’s non-Persian minorities, largely overlooked in Western coverage, are playing an outsized role in the protests that erupted after Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody. Brenda Shaffer writes that security forces have killed a disproportionate number of minority protesters, including a massacre of Baluch worshippers in Zahedan, and argues these ethnic fault lines may determine […]
Energy in Conflict: The Case of the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War
As hybrid warfare grows more common, combatants are increasingly targeting energy infrastructure itself. Brenda Shaffer examines how energy shaped the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan War: threats to the soon-to-open Southern Gas Corridor helped trigger the fighting, energy infrastructure was weaponized on both sides, and Armenia struck at Azerbaijan’s export network, offering a preview of how energy assets […]
Putin Just Pushed the World Into an Even Bigger Energy Crisis
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t create the world’s energy problems. It made them much worse. Crude prices jumped past $105 a barrel within days of the attack. Even Russian energy exports that avoid formal sanctions will shrink, since companies tend to overcomply rather than risk US retribution or reputational damage. The market was already tight […]