Moving Pieces: European energy security amid rapidly changing geopolitical developments
Brenda Shaffer and Neil Brown examine the geopolitical shifts threatening Europe’s natural gas security, from the removal of Iran sanctions to Russia-Turkey tensions, the Syrian civil war, and instability in the South Caucasus. The authors argue that Europe needs a clearer, more consistent natural gas policy rather than relying on market liberalization alone, and they […]
Israel’s Energy Resource Management Policy: Lessons For Small Markets
Brenda Shaffer examines how Israel developed a management strategy for the major natural gas resources it discovered in 2009-2010, arguing that its initial approach of forming several inter-ministerial committees to weigh policy options before production and export began was unusual and useful, since most states start producing and exporting newly discovered energy resources without first […]
Ending the Petroleum Mystique: The Future of the Global Price of Oil
Brenda Shaffer argues that the global oil price, often assumed to be driven by hidden government or cartel machinations, is actually set by ordinary supply and demand, traded globally at a single price and prone to volatility because production cannot be quickly adjusted. She contends that OPEC has lost much of its historical power to […]
Europe’s Natural Gas Security of Supply: Policy Tools for Single Supplied States
Several European states depend on Russia as their sole supplier of natural gas, yet Brenda Shaffer’s case studies of Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Hungary show that single-supplier states can still secure adequate gas security without necessarily adding new supply sources or cutting their share of Russian gas. She finds that the most effective strategies are […]
Can New Energy Supplies Bring Peace?
In this Mediterranean Policy Program brief for the German Marshall Fund’s Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project, Dr. Brenda Shaffer examines claims that the natural gas discoveries offshore Israel and Cyprus could serve as a catalyst for regional peace. She finds the odds are low: the reserves are too modest to reshape major export markets, the potential […]
Natural Gas Supply Stability and Foreign Policy
Natural gas, unlike oil, moves mainly through fixed pipelines under long-term contracts, which gives politics far more room to shape supply than it does in the oil market. Brenda Shaffer studies 35 gas supply relationships and two case studies to show that disruptions can be triggered by supplier, transit, or consumer states alike, and that […]