In this Mediterranean Policy Program brief for the German Marshall Fund’s Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project, Dr. Brenda Shaffer examines claims that the natural gas discoveries offshore Israel and Cyprus could serve as a catalyst for regional peace.
She finds the odds are low: the reserves are too modest to reshape major export markets, the potential economic gains are not large enough to overcome deep-rooted political conflicts, and there is no precedent elsewhere for energy trade driving peace between states in conflict.
Dr. Shaffer argues that while these resources are unlikely to resolve the region’s disputes on their own, they can reinforce political progress that is already underway, and can meaningfully benefit the region by lowering desalination costs, improving electricity access for the Palestinian territories, Jordan, and Lebanon, and reducing pollution from power generation.
